Report: Tiburon and Belvedere will likely miss state’s housing targets for 2031

A rendering shows plans for the 2.84-acre, 40-unit Mallard Pointe redevelopment between Belvedere City Hall and the lagoon. Its fast-track application was deemed complete in June 2022 but took more than three years to win approval, facing significant community opposition. A Marin civil grand jury report, however, cited economic obstacles rather than local pushback as the primary reason why state-mandated housing development across Marin won’t meet eight-year targets. (via Mallard Pointe 1951 LLC)

Tiburon and Belvedere will almost certainly fail to meet ambitious state housing mandates requiring the construction of 639 and 160 units respectively by 2031, according to a Marin civil grand jury report that blames economics rather than community resistance for the projected shortfall.

The June 24 report “The Worrisome Future of Marin Housing” found that Marin County and all 11 of its cities and towns will likely fall short of building a combined 14,405 housing units by 2031 under the current state allocation. The targets represent a 526% increase from the 2,298 units previously allocated between 2015 and 2023, when neither Tiburon nor Belvedere met their housing goals. During that fifth cycle, Tiburon achieved only 36% of its goal while Belvedere reached 63%. The two communities were among only three of 12 Marin jurisdictions that failed to meet their targets, along with San Rafael.

Housing leaders told grand jury members that “significant cost challenges that make building housing financially unattractive” present the primary obstacle, including high interest rates, labor and construction costs, local and state building codes and “a lack of available land” for for-profit developers, the report said. Affordable-housing developers face those same restrictions plus limited rental rates.

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