Election 2026: State Senate candidates Connolly, Gibbs clash over taxes, housing, homelessness
The two Marin residents vying to succeed termed-out state Sen. Mike McGuire split over Marin’s childcare parcel tax, homelessness and a statewide measure to make citizen-initiated local taxes harder to pass, though both pledged to rein in state housing laws.
Assemblymember Damon Connolly, D-San Rafael, and Republican Tief Gibbs of Novato answered questions for more than an hour Sept. 24 in an online forum hosted by the Coalition of Sensible Taxpayers, a Marin taxpayer-advocacy group Connolly thanked for endorsing him in his 2022 Assembly race. Marin Independent Journal columnist Dick Spotswood moderated.
The 2nd State Senate District, which includes the Tiburon Peninsula, runs from the Golden Gate Bridge to the Oregon border, taking in Del Norte, Humboldt, Lake, Marin, Mendocino and Trinity counties and part of Sonoma. McGuire, a Democrat and former Senate president pro tem, is running for Congress in the 1st District.
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Both would loosen state housing rules
Both candidates said they would roll back or rewrite state housing laws that override local zoning.
Connolly is a former Marin supervisor, San Rafael councilmember and state deputy attorney general who has represented Marin in the Assembly since 2022. He said he had not supported Senate Bill 79, the 2025 law that took effect July 1 and allows apartment buildings of five to nine stories within a half-mile of major transit stations in urban counties, or Assembly Bill 130 and Senate Bill 131, 2025 budget bills that loosened state environmental review for infill housing. He voted against SB 79 and did not vote on final passage of AB 130 or SB 131. All three became law.
He also took aim at the regional housing needs allocation, the state process that sets how many homes each city and county must plan for, saying it assigns numbers within deadlines “that don’t really make sense.” He said the idea of revisiting it has met “a chilly reception so far” among his colleagues.
Gibbs is the co-owner of Vintage Vehicles, a Novato shop that restores pre-1980 American cars, and secretary of the Marin County Republican Central Committee. She cited a developer’s plan for three six-story apartment buildings in downtown Novato and said denser housing without new water, sewer and fire infrastructure invites trouble in an evacuation. The state should instead expand cities onto surrounding land and build the infrastructure to serve it, she said.
Connolly said that marked a difference between them. He supports urban growth boundaries, he said, and opposes expanding “suburban sprawl.”
Both said state housing mandates come without money for the infrastructure that new housing needs.
“The state is required by law to actually fund mandates that it imposes on local governments, but in most cases, as you noted, it’s not doing that, which is wrong,” Connolly said.
Opposite sides on Proposition 43 and Measure P
The candidates split on Proposition 43, which beginning in 2027 would require two-thirds voter approval for new, increased or extended local special taxes proposed by citizen initiative. Such taxes now need a simple majority — the threshold that applies this fall to the county’s Measure P childcare parcel tax and the Marin Healthcare District’s Measure CC hospital parcel tax, both of which qualified by petition.
Gibbs backs it, saying renters often don’t realize a parcel tax can come back to them as a rent increase.
“The property owner should really be the primary person to decide whether this is a valid tax,” she said.
Gibbs also said no citizens’ initiative qualifies without paid signature gatherers and that the petition drive for Measure CC had told people the hospital would close.
The ballot argument against Measure CC says two people said on the record that petition gatherers told them the hospital would close if they did not sign. Jason Ruben, MarinHealth’s emergency medicine chair and a supporter of the measure, said last month that the campaign told him of “an isolated incident where a signature gatherer departed from the approved messaging and shared incorrect information” and that it addressed the matter immediately.
Connolly opposes Proposition 43 and asked Gibbs to produce evidence of fraudulent signature-gathering, saying there has been none. He said he signed the Measure P petition after being “approached by a citizen.”
“I’m a supporter of the citizens’ initiative process,” he said.
Measure P would levy 5 cents per square foot of building for 15 years, raising an estimated $12.5 million a year for childcare tuition help, childcare-worker pay and facilities. Connolly, who said he has signed on as a sponsor, said childcare costs weigh heavily on two-income families and the North Bay struggles to attract and retain childcare workers. No one wants new taxes without a good reason, he said, but “in this case it’s warranted.”
Gibbs signed the ballot argument against it.
“It’s bad, it’s just badly written,” she said.
She said the measure doesn’t set how the money is divided among its three purposes, income limits, how many families would be helped or any performance targets, leaving those decisions to an appointed body after the tax passes. It has no senior exemption and doesn’t require that the families or workers it helps live in Marin, she said.
Homelessness, rail and water divide them
On homelessness, Connolly said the state has enough money in the system and the problem is spending it wisely, crediting Gov. Gavin Newsom for calling for audits. Permanent supportive housing has worked, he said, alongside drug, mental-health and behavioral-health treatment and interim shelter.
Gibbs said the state’s Housing First approach, which places homeless people in housing without first requiring treatment or sobriety, is misplaced.
“The primary issue is drugs and alcohol and mental illness,” she said.
No one should be allowed to live on the street, she said.
“You may not block a sidewalk, live on the street and do drugs in an open-air market,” Gibbs said.
Connolly called that a “right-wing talking point” that overlooks other homeless people, saying most at-risk constituents who contact his office are senior women facing rising rents.
Connolly said he is “hanging in there” on high-speed rail, noting the Legislature has committed more money from the state’s carbon market over the next several years. He said he will keep pressing for audits.
“That having been said, we cannot throw good money after bad,” he said.
Gibbs called the project a money pit and said she doesn’t believe it will be built.
“The high-speed rail in California is called airplanes,” she said.
Gibbs opposes removing dams, saying the state needs the water and hydroelectric power and should classify hydropower as renewable energy. She opposes the plan to decommission the Potter Valley Project, Pacific Gas and Electric Co.’s dams on the Eel River that divert water into the Russian River, and said she would not have removed the Klamath River dams.
Connolly called the removal of four Klamath River dams “an unmitigated success in my view” and said he supports the so-called two-basin solution for Potter Valley and new water storage for Russian River communities downstream.
The two also split on energy. Gibbs said the state should attract oil companies and be “drilling our own oil.”
“We are not gonna allow offshore drilling along our coast,” Connolly said.
Pensions, bail and wildfire liability
Both were asked about Assembly Bill 1383, which would have lowered the retirement age for police officers and firefighters from 57 to 55 and allowed richer pension formulas. It passed the Senate 33-0 and the Assembly 69-2 before Newsom vetoed it Sept. 20.
“So I voted for the measure this year,” Connolly said.
If a new version comes back, he said, “we’ll have to evaluate it at the time.”
Gibbs said she was glad Newsom vetoed it.
“This is not the right way to do it, and I would definitely be opposed to that if it comes back,” she said.
On bail, Gibbs said people accused of serious crimes should face very high bail or none at all.
“I am a huge proponent of locking up criminals,” she said.
Connolly said low-level offenders shouldn’t sit in jail because they can’t pay, crediting Marin’s specialty courts and retired Marin Superior Court Judge Beverly Wood, whom he called a pioneer of the approach.
“It depends on the type and severity of the crime,” he said.
On wildfire, Connolly, who chairs the Assembly Select Committee on Wildfire Prevention, said the Legislature ran out of time at the end of session on what he called “a utility bailout proposal” that would have capped utilities’ liability even when their equipment was at fault for wildfires and will take it up first thing next session. He said he wants discounts and continued coverage for homeowners who harden their homes and changes to the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort.
Gibbs said PG&E is a monopoly that passes its penalties on to ratepayers and questioned who is making sure it clears trees from its lines. She said Democrats have run Sacramento for years.
“Okay, well how come it hasn’t been done?” she said.
In closing Gibbs cited endorsements from the Marin and Sonoma county Republican central committees and the California Rifle & Pistol Association. Connolly cited his bill to end the so-called water’s-edge election, which lets multinational corporations leave most foreign profits out of their California taxes. That bill, Assembly Bill 1790, cleared the Assembly Revenue and Taxation Committee 4-2 in April but never advanced out of the Appropriations Committee.
Connolly led the primary and fundraising
Connolly took 232,240 of 316,501 votes in the June 2 primary, or about 73.4%. Gibbs was second with 51,149 votes, or about 16.2%, ahead of Republican Aaron Smith. Under California’s top-two primary, the two leading vote-getters advance to the November ballot regardless of party.
No independent poll of the race had been made public as of The Ark’s press deadline. Connolly submitted a candidate statement for Marin’s voter guide, and Gibbs did not. Both pledged to abide by the state’s voluntary campaign spending limits.
Connolly’s Senate campaign committee reported raising about $556,000 this year through Sept. 19 and had about $692,000 on hand, according to state filings. Gibbs’ committee reported raising $3,387, all of it since July 1, and had $2,432 on hand.
Connolly’s campaign lists endorsements from all five Tiburon councilmembers — Mayor Jon Welner, Vice Mayor Isaac Nikfar and Councilmembers Alice Fredericks, Jack Ryan and Holli Thier — and from Belvedere Councilmember Jane Cooper. Fredericks and Ryan are seeking reelection to the Tiburon council on the same ballot, and Cooper is running unopposed for reelection in Belvedere.
Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters, whose district includes the peninsula, has also endorsed Connolly, as have McGuire, Rep. Jared Huffman, the Sierra Club and the California Democratic Party. Gibbs is endorsed by the California Republican Party and the American Independent Party, according to the county voter guide.
Marin began mailing ballots Oct. 5. The last day to register is Oct. 19, though voters can register and vote in person through Election Day, Nov. 3. A recording of the forum is posted at arkn.ws/d2debate.
Reach Executive Editor Kevin Hessel at 415-435-2652.